Are you busy working every day but want to earn some extra income through FX trading?
However, I lacked both the time and energy for short-term trading, and I wasn't able to earn as much as I wanted
For someone like you, I recommend a medium- to long-term trading style called "swing trading."
This article will show you how to aim for profits without overexerting yourself, even with limited time
■What you will learn from reading this article
- Characteristics of swing trading and how it differs from other methods
- Advantages and disadvantages of swing trading in overseas forex markets
- Recommended overseas forex brokers and key points for choosing one
- Practical tips and precautions for increasing your win rate
- How to use the most effective method that even beginners can try
If you read to the end, you should see a path to achieving stable profits without having to constantly monitor the market
海外FX初心者の方は海外FX初心者完全ガイドを一読することをおすすめいたします。
Contents
- 1 What is swing trading?
- 2 Swing trading in overseas forex is recommended for these types of people
- 3 Recommended overseas forex brokers for swing trading
- 4 5 Advantages of Swing Trading with Overseas Forex Markets
- 4.1 1. You can make large trades with a small amount of capital
- 4.2 2. The stop-loss level is low, making it easier to maintain positions
- 4.3 3. You can prepare for unexpected losses without margin calls
- 4.4 4. You don't need to constantly monitor the market
- 4.5 5. Easier to keep transaction costs (spread) down
- 5 Five disadvantages of swing trading in overseas forex markets
- 5.1 1. Transaction costs are higher compared to domestic companies
- 5.2 2. Increasing the lot size too much increases the risk of stop-loss
- 5.3 3. Swap points tend to be unfavorable
- 5.4 4. It will take time to reach the target profit
- 5.5 5. You need to be able to withstand unrealized losses over a long period of time
- 6 The ultimate swing trading strategy for overseas forex markets ① | Trend Following
- 7 The Ultimate Swing Trading Method for Overseas Forex (Part 2) | Ichimoku Cloud
- 7.1 Basic signals to be aware of in Ichimoku Kinko Hyo
- 7.2 Enter the market based on the strong upward signal, "Three Positive Reversals"
- 7.3 Enter the market based on the strong downward signal, "Three-Line Reversal."
- 7.4 Enhance timing by using it in conjunction with MACD
- 7.5 Profit-taking targets are determined based on the Ichimoku Cloud
- 8 5 tips to increase your winning rate in overseas forex swing trading
- 9 Reasons why you might not be profitable in overseas forex swing trading and how to fix them
- 10 Q&A about Swing Trading
- 11 Summary | Is Swing Trading in Overseas Forex the Best Method? A Complete Explanation of How to Do It and All the Tips
What is swing trading?
Swing trading is a style of trading where positions are held for several days to several weeks, aiming to profit by riding the medium- to long-term trends of the market
Since it eliminates the need for frequent buying and selling, it's also suitable for people who don't have time to check the market every day
In particular, overseas forex trading offers high leverage, allowing for highly efficient capital management
You can trade while carefully identifying trends based on technical analysis and economic news
Furthermore, because it doesn't require constantly monitoring charts, it's popular among people with limited time, such as office workers
Its key feature is that it makes trading easy and calm, even for beginners
Characteristics of Swing Trading
A key characteristic of swing trading is that positions are held for periods ranging from several days to several weeks
This allows you to trade calmly without being swayed by short-term price fluctuations
エントリーとエグジットのタイミングは、主にテクニカル分析を用いて判断することが多いです。
For example, indicators such as moving averages, MACD, and Ichimoku Kinko Hyo are used to grasp market trends
Furthermore, fundamental factors are also incorporated, so we pay attention to economic indicators and statements from key figures
When trading with overseas forex brokers, you also need to pay attention to the swap points and spread conditions
Since you're not constantly trading several times a day, the mental burden is relatively light, making it easier to stick with, which is a major advantage
Differences between swing trading and other trading methods
Swing trading involves less frequent trades compared to scalping and day trading, with positions typically held for several days to several weeks
Scalping involves completing trades in a few seconds to a few minutes, and day trading involves completing trades within a day, while swing trading involves trading on medium- to long-term trends
Therefore, it doesn't require constant monitoring of market prices, making it easy for busy people to implement
Unlike position trading, where positions are held for several months, this method allows for easier adaptation to market changes
Furthermore, with overseas forex trading, you can leverage high leverage to trade efficiently even with a small amount of capital
By paying attention to transaction costs and the accuracy of chart analysis, you can expect stable profits
Swing trading in overseas forex is recommended for these types of people
Swing trading requires an investment strategy that suits each individual's lifestyle and personality
While it offers many benefits to those who are suited to it, those who are not suited to it are likely to fail if they try to force themselves to do it
Therefore, in this chapter, we will explain in detail what kind of person is suited to swing trading
Overseas forex trading offers high leverage and a flexible trading environment, so it's important to find a style that suits you
Check each point while considering whether it suits your personality and lifestyle
People who have limited time available for transactions
Swing trading is ideal for people who have limited time for trading, such as those who work during the day
This is perfect for people who are busy every day and only have time to themselves after returning home
"I can't spend all my time watching charts, but I want some extra income." This is perfect for people like that
For people like this, simply checking charts and reviewing their strategies once a day is usually sufficient
Using an overseas forex broker that allows you to easily place orders on your smartphone is appealing because you can manage your investments without disrupting your daily routine
- Many office workers have long working hours and cannot spend time at their computers every day
- Housewives and househusbands who don't have the time to keep up with the market due to housework and childcare
- People who want to try FX as a side hustle but have limited time
People who have the mental fortitude to remain unfazed by unrealized losses
In swing trading, it's not uncommon to incur temporary unrealized losses after entering a trade
Therefore, it is suitable for people who can remain calm and make sound judgments without being swayed by short-term gains or losses
Those who can remain calm and act according to the rules are more likely to achieve stable operations
For example, people who can maintain an attitude of "adhering to stop-loss lines" and "observing the situation based on predictions" tend to have a higher winning percentage in the long run
On the other hand, people who panic and close their positions every time they see a loss tend to continue losing money
| Features | remarks |
|---|---|
| Don't rush into making a decision | Don't rush the results |
| A diligent and steady personality | I'm good at sticking to plans |
| Follow the trading rules | Stay steady throughout |
| Prioritizing stability over profit | Emphasis on steady results |
People who want to aim for big profits in a single entry
Swing trading is suitable for people who want to achieve big results with fewer opportunities rather than making many small trades
このような人は、「回数よりも質で勝負したい」と考える戦略型タイプです。
For example, by finding a pullback on a daily chart and riding a major trend, it's possible to aim for a profit of 100 pips or more
By using the high leverage offered by overseas forex brokers, you can expect to make substantial profits even with a small amount of capital
People of this type excel at carefully analyzing situations and determining the right timing
- I want to aim for a "big win" rather than small profits each time
- I want to prepare carefully and win in one go
- A cautious type who thoroughly analyzes the timing of entry
People who are sensitive to economic news and international affairs
In swing trading, fundamentals such as economic indicators and monetary policy have a significant impact on price movements
Therefore, it is a significant advantage for people who regularly check the news or are interested in the background of exchange rates
Understanding that "exchange rates are influenced by global events" and having no trouble gathering information makes this a very powerful tool
For example, by developing a trading strategy that takes into account the Federal Reserve's policy announcements and employment statistics, you can make more accurate entries
Those who can sense from the news that "this is likely to affect the market" will likely excel in swing trading
- I am interested in economic trends
- I want to analyze the factors that influence exchange rates myself
- I like to learn about world events
- I'm good at gathering information
Recommended overseas forex brokers for swing trading
Now that we understand what swing trading is and who it's suitable for, let's look at which brokers you should use
There are many overseas forex brokers, but not all of them are suitable for swing trading
You need to choose a broker based on a comprehensive assessment of factors such as the trading environment, leverage, spreads, and server stability
In this section, we will introduce three brokers that are well-suited for swing trading and are highly regarded by domestic traders
All of these companies have a proven track record and are reliable choices for beginners to intermediate users
Please use this information to help you choose the right service provider for you by comparing their features
| Company name | Maximum leverage | spread | Swap conditions | Points for your swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Exdefine | Maximum Unlimited | 0.0 pips and up (zero account) | Some have positive swap | Zero accounts offer low costs and high leverage for flexible trading |
Titan FX | Up to 500x | 0.0 pips and up (Blade account) | Stable and with minimal negative impacts | The balance between execution power and cost makes it suitable for swing trading |
ThreeTrader | Up to 500x | 0.1 pips ~ | Many positive swaps | Attractive features include long-term holding swaps and cTrader |
Exness | Excellent swap conditions, ideal for long-term holding
出典：Exness
Exness is a popular broker among swing traders due to its flexible leverage and high cost-performance ratio
Zero Accounts, in particular, minimize trading costs, making them ideal for traders who hold positions for several days to several weeks
Furthermore, some currency pairs offer positive swap points, making them advantageous for long-term holding
In addition, the server stability and smooth execution are highly rated, allowing you to continue trading with peace of mind
It supports both manual and automated trading, and its simple operation is a reassuring point for beginners
| Swing-related evaluation items | Content |
|---|---|
| Maximum leverage | Unlimited (with conditions) |
| Spread (approximate) | 0.0 pips and up (zero account) |
| Account types and features | Zero Account: Fees apply, extremely low spreads |
| Swap conditions | Some currency pairs are advantageous (may have a positive impact) |
| Execution capability and trading stability | High standards (servers only a major company can offer) |
| Supported Platforms | MT4/MT5 |
Titan FX | Reliable execution for secure swing trading
出典：Titan FX
Titan FX is an STP (Straight Through Processing) broker that boasts stable execution and low spreads, making it possible to trade with confidence even in swing trading
In particular, Blade accounts offer extremely narrow spreads on major currency pairs, minimizing commission costs even when holding positions for extended periods
The swap points are also relatively stable, and the fact that it's unlikely to be extremely disadvantageous even with long-term holding is reassuring
Furthermore, it is known for having minimal slippage during economic indicator announcements, and its high execution speed is an important point for swing traders
| Swing-related evaluation items | Content |
|---|---|
| Maximum leverage | 500 times |
| Spread (approximate) | 0.0 pips and up (Blade account) |
| Account types and features | Blade Account: Narrow Spread + Commission-Based |
| Swap conditions | No extreme negatives, stable trend |
| Execution capability and trading stability | Highly rated (low slippage) |
| Supported Platforms | MT4/MT5 |
ThreeTrader | Enables low-cost and efficient medium- to long-term trading
出典：ThreeTrader
ThreeTrader's biggest strength for swing traders is its wide selection of currency pairs with very favorable swap conditions
For some pairs, the swap can be positive even when held for a long period, helping to increase profits
Furthermore, the transaction fees are modest, making it attractive because even a few transactions won't result in high costs
Furthermore, it is compatible with cTrader, making chart analysis and order book information easy to use, providing the necessary environment for swing traders
Although it's a relatively new company, it has a reliable license and a good reputation for withdrawals
| Swing-related evaluation items | Content |
|---|---|
| Maximum leverage | 500 times |
| Spread (approximate) | 0.1 pips ~ |
| Account types and features | Classic Account: Low Spreads + Low Commissions |
| Swap conditions | Many favorable currency pairs (with positive swap points) |
| Execution capability and trading stability | Stable operation (no major problems reported) |
| Supported Platforms | MT4/cTrader |
5 Advantages of Swing Trading with Overseas Forex Markets
By engaging in swing trading with overseas forex brokers, you can take advantage of features not available with domestic accounts
In particular, the high leverage, zero-cut system, and low-cost environment make it very compatible with the swing
Even those who are too busy during the day to monitor the market can efficiently manage their funds and more easily aim for long-term profits
Here are five key benefits of practicing swing trading in overseas forex trading
Please use this as a hint to find weapons that suit your style
| 5 Benefits | point |
|---|---|
| 1. You can make large trades even with a small amount of capital | High leverage and good capital efficiency |
| 2. The stop-loss level is low, allowing for persistent holding | Strong against unrealized losses and good at waiting for trends |
| 3. Risk is limited as there are no margin calls | With zero-cut loans, you don't have to worry about debt |
| 4. You don't have to constantly monitor the market | It's easy to continue trading even when you're busy |
| 5. Low cost burden due to spread | Fewer transactions mean lower costs |
Swing trading has many appealing aspects
Let's take a closer look at the advantages of each
1. You can make large trades with a small amount of capital
With overseas forex trading, you can use high leverage, ranging from 500 to 1000 times
This allows you to trade in large lots even with a small initial investment
Swing trading involves holding positions for several days to several weeks, and its appeal lies in the ability to dramatically increase capital efficiency by leveraging the power of leverage
For example, even with a margin of 100,000 yen, you can hold positions worth millions of currency units, and aim for significant profits even in short-term trends
However, risk management is essential, and it is important to use this method while adjusting the lot size
2. The stop-loss level is low, making it easier to maintain positions
In swing trading, it's common to hold positions for several days to several weeks while incurring unrealized losses
If the stop-loss order is triggered too early, the position will be forcibly closed before the market recovers, and the loss will be finalized
One advantage of overseas forex trading is that stop-loss levels are set relatively low, such as 20% to 50%, making it easier to hold out
On the other hand, domestic FX brokers are generally subject to a stop-loss order when the margin maintenance ratio falls below 100% due to legal regulations, which means they have less resilience to unrealized losses
For example, even if your position's unrealized losses temporarily increase, with overseas forex trading, you may have more time to wait for a rebound
This type of system is very well-suited to styles that follow long-term trends
3. You can prepare for unexpected losses without margin calls
Most overseas forex brokers employ a zero-cut system
This system ensures that you will not be asked to make additional deposits even if your account balance goes negative
Even if you incur significant losses due to sudden market fluctuations or economic indicator announcements, your losses will be limited to the amount of your margin deposit, so you can rest assured
Swing trading involves holding positions for several days, which inevitably exposes you to the risk of unexpected events
しかしゼロカットがあることで「借金の心配をせずに取引ができる」という精神的な余裕を持つことができます。
4. You don't need to constantly monitor the market
This is common both domestically and internationally, and is not a characteristic unique to overseas forex trading
The fact that you don't have to constantly monitor the market is an inherent advantage of the swing trading method itself
In swing trading, while there may be some ups and downs while you hold a position, there is no need to get overly excited or discouraged by small daily price fluctuations
In particular, by utilizing the order reservation function (limit orders, stop orders, OCO orders, etc.), you can automatically take profits or cut losses, eliminating the need to constantly monitor the market
Overseas forex brokers also have all the basic order functions available, so you can use them with peace of mind
This can be considered a significant advantage for busy office workers, parents, and others who want to conduct transactions efficiently within their limited time
5. Easier to keep transaction costs (spread) down
In swing trading, the number of trades is small, so the impact of costs from spreads is inherently smaller
This point, too, is a characteristic of the swing trading method itself, not just limited to overseas forex trading
However, many overseas forex brokers offer narrow spreads and low fees, which can make trading more advantageous in some cases
For example, accounts like Exness's Zero Account and Titan FX's Blade Account have very low costs per trade
Therefore, it can be said that it is well-suited to swing trading, where the profit margin per position tends to be large
If you want to further enhance your cost advantage, it's a good idea to compare and choose from the different account types offered by overseas brokers
Five disadvantages of swing trading in overseas forex markets
While swing trading offers many advantages, there are also disadvantages that you should be aware of
There are several points to be aware of, especially due to the unique mechanisms and environment of overseas forex trading
To consistently make profits from trading, it's important to consider not only the positive aspects but also the risks
Here, we've summarized five disadvantages you should be aware of when engaging in swing trading with overseas forex brokers
Understanding this beforehand will allow you to manage things wisely while taking appropriate measures
| 5 disadvantages | point |
|---|---|
| 1. Transaction costs are higher compared to domestic companies | Pay attention to fees and spreads |
| 2. Increasing the lot size too much increases the risk of stop-loss | High leverage trading may result in forced liquidation |
| 3. Swap points tend to be unfavorable | Profits are reduced by negative swaps |
| 4. It will take time to reach the target profit | It is difficult to make short-term profits |
| 5. You need to be able to withstand unrealized losses over a long period of time | If you have a weak mentality, you're more likely to cut your losses midway |
These disadvantages can be easily avoided by being aware of them in advance
Let's take a closer look at the disadvantages of each
1. Transaction costs are higher compared to domestic companies
Overseas forex trading often features wider spreads, and some accounts (such as the ECN-based "Zero Account" and "Blade Account") also incur trading fees
This "wide spread" is the main reason why trading costs are higher than with domestic brokers
The spread is an invisible cost incurred when placing and closing an order, and it becomes a significant burden, especially as the position size increases
Although swing trading involves fewer trades, the positions opened per trade are often large, so the impact of these costs can sometimes be surprisingly significant
Note that "transaction costs" here refer to spreads and fees, and are different from swap points while holding a position (swap points will be explained later)
To create a favorable trading environment, it's important to choose an account type and broker with the narrowest possible spreads
2. Increasing the lot size too much increases the risk of stop-loss
One of the attractions of overseas forex trading is that you can use high leverage, allowing you to take on large positions with a small amount of capital
However, increasing the lot size more than necessary can cause even small price movements to lower the margin maintenance ratio, potentially leading to a stop-loss
Since swing trading is based on long-term holding, periods of unrealized losses tend to be long, and setting excessive lot sizes is dangerous
For example, if the margin maintenance ratio falls below the stop-loss level due to a price movement against you, your position will be automatically closed
If you don't thoroughly manage risk, such as setting stop-loss orders or adjusting lot sizes, even a good trade will lose its meaning
Beginners in particular should try to avoid setting excessively high lot sizes
3. Swap points tend to be unfavorable
In swing trading, positions are held for several days to several weeks, so swap points (adjustments for interest rate differences that occur while a position is held) affect profits and losses
In overseas forex trading, swap rates are often set at a less favorable rate compared to domestic forex trading, which can gradually become a cost over long-term holding periods
In particular, positions selling high-interest rate currencies can result in large negative swaps, which can directly lead to unexpected losses, so caution is advised
For example, short positions in Turkish lira or South African rand can incur swap fees of several tens of yen per day
In swing trading, which is based on the premise of long-term holding, choosing currency pairs with favorable swap rates is also an important strategy
4. It will take time to reach the target profit
Swing trading is a style that aims to capture trends over the medium to long term, so it is usually difficult to make large profits in the short term
Especially in situations where the market is consolidating, the holding period for positions tends to be longer, and it can be difficult to reach profit-taking targets
For those who want to accumulate profits every day, like with day trading or scalping, swing trading might feel frustrating
Furthermore, the longer you hold a position, the longer your capital will be tied up
Therefore, you may experience missed opportunities or mental stress
With these points in mind, it is important to carefully develop a strategy
5. You need to be able to withstand unrealized losses over a long period of time
In swing trading, it's not uncommon for the price to move in the opposite direction immediately after you enter a trade
そのため、ポジションを数日〜数週間持つ間に含み損になるケースは多く、これに耐えられるメンタルが必要です。
If you get scared and cut your losses midway through, you might miss out on the trend you were originally aiming for, resulting in a wasted opportunity
For people who are overly sensitive to losses or who become anxious by constantly monitoring price fluctuations, this can be a source of significant stress
To overcome this disadvantage, setting stop-loss rules in advance and trading with smaller lot sizes are effective strategies
Swing traders need the ability to continue trading without being swayed by emotions
The ultimate swing trading strategy for overseas forex markets ① | Trend Following
To consistently aim for profits in swing trading, the concept of "trend following," which involves riding the market trend rather than going against it, is extremely important
Especially with overseas forex trading, you can choose highly volatile currency pairs and markets with large price movements, making it easier to profit from price swings by riding the trend
This section will explain everything step-by step, from the basic concepts of trend following to useful indicators, how to choose the right timeframe, and entry and exit points
This is a classic strategy that is easy for beginners to adopt and has great versatility, so be sure to understand it thoroughly
What is trend following?
トレンドフォローとは、相場の流れ（トレンド）に沿って売買する手法のことです。
If the trend is upward, aim to buy (go long); if the trend is downward, aim to sell (go short)
Unlike counter-trend trading, this strategy is characterized by its ability to capture price movements by riding the larger trend
この手法のメリットは、エントリー方向に相場が進む限り、長くポジションを保有して利益を伸ばせることにあります。
This approach is very well-suited to swing trading, which aims to capture medium-term trends spanning several days to several weeks
For example, trend following is effective when the market shows a clear direction due to economic indicators or geopolitical risks
Rather than trying to force your way to the top or bottom, you're more likely to succeed by joining the trend midway through
If you want to consistently make money with swing trading, you should first learn the basics of "trend following," or "momentum trading," which involves identifying the trend and following its direction
Configure the indicators you want to use
In swing trading, it's important to use moving averages to simply grasp the direction of the market
まずはSMA（単純移動平均線）の20日線と75日線の2本を設定しましょう。
To improve the visibility of the chart, color coding is recommended
- 20SMA (short term) = blue
- 75SMA (medium term/long term) = red
- Auxiliary trend line = orange
まず日足チャートに75SMA（赤）を表示し、傾きが明確に出ているかでトレンドを判断します。
In terms of the image, an upward slope indicates an uptrend, while a downward slope indicates a downtrend
Next, apply the same settings (20SMA and 75SMA) to the 1-hour chart
Maintaining a consistent environmental awareness across these two timeframes is crucial for a successful swing strategy
Simply select "SMA (Simple Moving Average)" as the indicator type and set the period to 20 and 75
Finally, add auxiliary trend lines to areas where a rebound is likely to occur to make it visually clearer
Let's hone our decision-making skills with easy-to-read charts, without adding unnecessary indicators
Analyzing trends from multiple timeframes
スイングトレードでは、日足と1時間足の2つの時間軸からトレンドを判断するのが基本です。
まずは日足で先ほど引いた75SMA（赤）を元に、線の傾きで相場全体の流れを確認しましょう。
At this point, by drawing an orange trend line and connecting past lows and highs, you can visually grasp the direction of the price
If both the trend line and the moving average are sloping upwards, it indicates a clear uptrend
次に1時間足でも同様に、75SMAを使って短期の流れを分析します。
If we can confirm an upward trend here as well, it means that the direction of the daily chart and the hourly chart are aligned
さらに、直近の経済指標やイベント発表の有無もチェックしておきましょう。
If there is major news on the horizon, it is advisable to remain cautious, as this could disrupt the flow of events
The most important point before entering a trade is that the trend aligns across multiple timeframes
Use technical analysis to determine entry timing
トレンドが明確に出ている相場では、押し目や戻りを狙ったエントリーが効果的です。
In particular, use the "golden cross" and "dead cross" of moving averages to determine entry timing
まずは、1時間足に表示したSMA20（青）とSMA75（赤）に注目します。
If the price is in an uptrend, a buy signal is generated immediately after the SMA20 crosses above the SMA75
ただし、クロス後の最初の反発ではなく、2回目の押し目（＝再び20SMAで反発する場面）を狙うのが安全です。
The ideal entry point is when the candlestick approaches the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) and a rebound is confirmed
At this point, checking whether the price has bounced off the same 20-period Simple Moving Average (20SMA) several times in the past will increase the reliability of the prediction
また、エントリーを急ぎすぎるとダマしに遭うリスクもあるため、移動平均線の角度や相場の勢いも加味して判断しましょう。
In situations where fundamentals are a major factor, it's also important to consider refraining from entering a trade
A highly reliable entry point is when all three factors align: "market environment analysis + a rebound from the moving average + candlestick movement."
Set a stop-loss level in advance
In swing trading, it is extremely important to decide on your stop-loss level in advance
If you don't set a stop-loss order, you risk being unable to make a decision while holding unrealized losses, which could lead to further losses
In this method, the basic strategy is to enter a buy position on the second rebound after the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) and 75-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) form a golden cross on the 1-hour chart
この場合、損切りラインはその2回目の反発ラインを下回った位置に設定します。
This is because, since the entry is based on the assumption of an uptrend, if the price falls below the most recent support level, it is considered that the assumption has been invalidated
Relying on the expectation that "it might go up eventually" prevents you from making rational judgments
By clearly defining your stop-loss line, you can trade without being swayed by emotions
Set a profit target
In swing trading, clearly defining profit-taking rules allows for calm decision-making that is not influenced by emotions
今回の利確目標としては、トレンドの勢いが強かったのも加味して、「ローソク足の実体が75SMAを下回ったら利確」というルールを採用しています。
This is a clear signal indicating the end of an uptrend, and it is also easy to recognize visually
もう一つの利確目標としては、直近の高値ラインで反発の兆しが見えた場合に利確する方法があります。
High prices tend to attract the attention of many traders and often become points where reversals occur
Thus, while having a main profit-taking rule, it's important to be able to respond flexibly by observing price movements and market momentum
Setting a simple, visually clear target for taking profits allows for more decisive trading
The order will be an OCO order
Once you've decided on your stop-loss and take-profit points, you should generally use OCO orders
OCO orders are a convenient order type that allows you to set both profit targets and stop-loss orders at the same time
If you set it up in advance, payment will be automatically processed when either price is reached
This is an effective way to limit risk, especially for those who cannot monitor charts during the day
ただし、今回のように利確を「75SMAをローソク足の実体が下抜けた時」と定めている場合は、OCO注文だけでは対応できません。
このようなケースでは、チャートツールのアラート機能を活用するのがおすすめです。
Platforms like MT4 and TradingView allow you to set up alarm notifications when the price crosses an SMA or reaches a certain price level
By setting up an alert to sound when the candlestick falls below the 75-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), you can ensure you don't miss the opportunity to take profits
なお、利確判断が難しい場合でも、損切りだけは必ず逆指値で設定しておくことが基本です。
To prevent losses from escalating, be sure to implement at least basic risk management measures
The Ultimate Swing Trading Method for Overseas Forex (Part 2) | Ichimoku Cloud
Next, Ichimoku Kinko Hyo is listed as an optimal method for swing trading
The Ichimoku Kinko Hyo is a technical indicator originating in Japan, devised by Japanese market researcher Goichi Hosoda (pen name: Ichimoku Sanjin)
The name Ichimoku Sanjin reflects the desire to be a person like a hermit who can see the whole picture at a glance
He spent many years analyzing market trends as a newspaper reporter in the early Showa era, and it was during this time that he developed this indicator
一目均衡表は、ローソク足に5本の線を組み合わせて、トレンドの強さや転換点を視覚的に判断できるのが特徴です。
Especially in swing trading, using strong signals such as the "three positive signals" and "three negative signals" makes it easier to ride the bigger trend
This chapter will provide a clear explanation of the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator, from its basics to its practical applications
Basic signals to be aware of in Ichimoku Kinko Hyo
The Ichimoku Cloud is an excellent technical indicator that allows you to visually grasp market trends and turning points
In particular, in swing trading, it is useful for developing medium- to long-term position strategies while reading the overall trend
Among them, the following three basic signals are particularly important
| Signal content | meaning |
|---|---|
| Crossing of the conversion line and the base line | A golden cross is a buy signal, and a dead cross is a sell signal |
| Lagging span and candlestick crossover | Buy when the lagging span crosses above the candlestick, sell when it crosses below |
| The relationship between candlestick charts and the cloud's position | Above the cloud, the market is rising; below, it's falling; and within the cloud, the market is unstable |
これらの基本シグナルは単独でも参考になりますが、複数が同時に発生すると信頼性が高まります。
For example, if you can make a decision based on "the crossover of the conversion line and the base line" + "the crossover of the lagging span" + "the position where the price breaks through the Ichimoku Cloud," your trading strategy will be much more robust
Let's start by correctly understanding these basic signs
You can utilize even more powerful signals in the next steps: "Three-Role Improvement" and "Three-Role Reversal."
Enter the market based on the strong upward signal, "Three Positive Reversals"
The strongest buy signal in the Ichimoku Cloud is the "Three Positive Reversals" pattern
This is a state where all three elements are showing an upward trend, making it a highly reliable signal indicating a trend reversal or the start of a full-fledged bull market
The three conditions for a positive turn in the rankings are as follows:
- The conversion line crosses above the base line (golden cross)
- The lagging span has crossed above the candlestick
- The candlestick has broken above the cloud and is trading above it
If all three of these occur simultaneously or in quick succession, the likelihood of an upward trend increases
In particular, if the lagging span clearly crosses above the candlestick, followed by a golden cross between the conversion line and the base line, and finally the candlestick breaks above the cloud, this is considered the complete form of a three-line positive reversal, providing strong grounds for a buy entry
Its key features are its visual clarity and ease of understanding, even for beginners
The ideal entry point is immediately after all three conditions are met, or when there is a pullback after the price breaks above the cloud
In swing trading, riding these strong medium-term signals leads to improved win rates and profit margins
Enter the market based on the strong downward signal, "Three-Line Reversal."
The "Three-Line Reversal" is one of the strongest sell signals in the Ichimoku Cloud
When the conditions for a "three-line positive reversal" during an uptrend are met, the opposite conditions are present, suggesting the start of a full-fledged downtrend
The following three conditions must be met for a Sanyaku Gyakusen to occur
- The conversion line has crossed below the base line (death cross)
- The lagging span has crossed below the candlestick
- The candlestick has broken below the cloud and is trading below it
If these three conditions appear simultaneously or in quick succession, it can be concluded that the market has entered a clear downward trend
In particular, a "three-line reversal" is completed when the lagging span clearly breaks below the candlestick, the conversion line makes a death cross with the base line, and finally the candlestick breaks below the cloud
Since there may be a pullback immediately after breaking out of the cloud, entering the market during a subsequent decline after the rebound is one possible strategy
In swing trading, by noticing these clear downward signals and taking advantage of them, it's possible to aim for profits even in a declining market
Enhance timing by using it in conjunction with MACD
The "three positive lines" and "three negative lines" in the Ichimoku Cloud are highly reliable signals indicating a strong trend
However, since it takes time for the signal to be completed, there is a disadvantage in that the entry timing is slightly delayed
Therefore, to help detect earlier signs, it is recommended to use MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) in conjunction with it
MACD makes it easy to visually grasp market momentum and reacts to even small signs of trend reversals
たとえば、遅行スパンがローソク足を上抜ける前後や、転換線と基準線のクロス前にMACDがゴールデンクロスしていれば、エントリーの準備サインとして非常に有効です。
そして、三役好転がすべて完成したタイミングで買いエントリーするのも確かな選択肢です。
By being aware of this process, you can reduce the risk of making hasty decisions and make calmer judgments
Furthermore, MACD is also effective in determining the right time to take profits while a trend is continuing
For example, if a "divergence" occurs where the price is rising but the MACD is falling, it suggests the end of the trend, and it's a sign that you should consider taking profits early
MACD is a powerful indicator for swing trading, serving both as a way to "detect market trends" and "assist in taking profits."
Profit-taking targets are determined based on the Ichimoku Cloud
In swing trading, deciding where to take profits is a crucial decision
先ほど触れたMACDによる利確判断も有効ですが、今回のように一目均衡表の三役好転をもとにしたエントリー戦略では、「ローソク足が雲の中に入ったタイミング」をひとつの利確目標とするのが効果的です。
Clouds act like walls in the market, serving as support and resistance levels
Therefore, when a candlestick touches or enters the Ichimoku Cloud, it can be interpreted as a sign that the trend that had been continuing up to that point is beginning to weaken
Especially when entering a trade based on a three-line positive reversal, the upward momentum tends to slow down as the price approaches the Ichimoku Cloud, making it a very clear point to visually identify as a profit-taking target
Furthermore, paying attention to the thickness and angle of the clouds will further improve the accuracy of your judgment
While thin clouds may allow the price to break through, thick clouds tend to cause a rebound, often making it an ideal time to take profits
感情に左右されないためにも、このような視覚的で明確な利確ルールを持つことが、スイングトレードを安定して継続するための重要なポイントです。
5 tips to increase your winning rate in overseas forex swing trading
Swing trading is a trading style that aims to capture trend waves over a period of several days to several weeks
While this tends to result in larger profit margins in a single trade, it also makes it difficult to identify trends and manage risk, requiring a certain level of skill and ingenuity to consistently win
Here are five practical tips to improve your success rate in swing trading
All of these things can be easily incorporated into your daily trading, so let's make this extra step a habit
| 5 tips | Content | Explanation |
|---|---|---|
| ① Choose a major currency pair | USD/JPY and EUR/USD, etc | With many participants, the chart tends to be more stable |
| ② Check the fundamentals | Check interest rates, employment statistics, etc | This makes it easier to predict long-term market trends |
| ③ Adjust position size and hold | Use split entries and profit-taking | It's easier to increase profits while keeping risks low |
| ④ Maintain a margin maintenance ratio of 250% or higher | Maintain a moderate position | This makes it easier to withstand sudden price fluctuations |
| ⑤ Analyze the background of the trend | Identify the factors through news reports, etc | It also becomes easier to predict the end of a trend |
1. Choose mainly major currency pairs
To achieve consistent results with swing trading, the basic principle is to choose "major currency pairs" as your trading targets
Major currency pairs refer to currency pairs with high global trading volume, such as USD/JPY, EUR/USD, and GBP/USD
The reason these are suitable is that they have high liquidity and their prices tend to fluctuate in a consistent rhythm
Technical analysis becomes more effective when many traders use the same charts and technical indicators as a reference for their buying and selling decisions
たとえば米ドル/円は、日本人トレーダーにとって最も馴染みが深く、情報量も豊富です。
With the second-largest trading volume in the world after the Euro/US Dollar, and with its relatively easy-to-read technical patterns and news-related influences, this currency pair is recommended for beginners in swing trading
Conversely, emerging market currencies such as the Turkish lira and South African rand tend to have low liquidity and unstable prices, making them difficult to analyze and less profitable to trade
2. Check the fundamentals beforehand
The second tip is that, in addition to charts, "fundamental analysis" is also an essential element
Fundamentals refer to all economic and political factors that influence exchange rates, including economic indicators, policy interest rates, statements from key figures, and geopolitical risks
While these factors have a limited impact on short-term trading, they significantly influence charts in swing trading, which involves holding positions for several days to several weeks
For example, if the United States decides to raise interest rates, the dollar tends to be bought, and the dollar-yen exchange rate tends to rise
また、雇用統計やGDP、インフレ率などの経済指標の発表タイミングでは、トレンドの転換や強化が起こることもあるため、あらかじめ経済カレンダーで重要指標の発表日を確認しておくことが重要です。
Even if you enter a trade based solely on technical analysis, you may incur unexpected losses if you are going against the major fundamental trends
Having both perspectives allows for more accurate decision-making
Make it a point to stay informed about economic news and global affairs on a regular basis
3. Hold the position while adjusting the position size
In swing trading, instead of entering and closing all trades at once, you can reduce risk and increase profits by dividing your trades into smaller segments
Specifically, effective strategies include starting with a small lot size and gradually increasing your position once the trend is confirmed, or conversely, partially taking profits and letting the rest run
For example, if you enter a trade of 20,000 units during an uptrend, you might take profits on 10,000 units once the price has risen to a certain point, and keep the remaining 10,000 units
Furthermore, if the trend continues, you can flexibly manage your positions by adding more entries
This way, you can maximize profits if the trend continues as expected, and minimize losses if it moves against you
Controlling position size is an important technique for increasing the stability of swing trading
4. Maintain a margin maintenance ratio of at least 250%
Swing trading involves a longer period from entry to exit, which often leads to temporary unrealized losses
そんなときに強制ロスカットを避けるためにも、「証拠金維持率250％以上」は最低限守るべき基準です。
The margin maintenance ratio indicates the percentage of unrealized losses relative to the account balance. If the maintenance ratio falls too low, the account will be subject to a stop-loss order
For example, if you trade with a margin of 50,000 yen, your margin maintenance ratio will be just barely sufficient with 10,000 units of currency, but with 5,000 units of currency, you can maintain a margin maintenance ratio of 250% or more
The higher the maintenance margin, the more resilience you have to withstand market fluctuations, which will reduce unnecessary anxiety and stress
Furthermore, maintaining mental composure is crucial when pursuing long-term trends. Creating a stable trading environment with a safe margin ratio will lead to consistent profits
5. Analyze the background behind the emergence of trends
最後のコツとして重要なのは、「なぜトレンドが発生しているのか？」という背景を理解することです。
単にチャートが上昇しているからといって買って終わりではなく、その動きの根拠や要因を探ることで、トレンドの強さや継続期間を見極めやすくなります。
For example, let's say that the underlying reason for the ongoing trend of a weaker US dollar is "expectations of interest rate cuts due to an economic slowdown in the United States."
In this case, the same trend is expected to continue until a policy change is made at the next FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting
このように、ニュースや経済指標の結果だけでなく、それに対して市場がどう反応し、どのように織り込んでいるかまで目を向けることが大切です。
You will gradually develop the ability to read the market sentiment, which is not reflected in charts
If you can deeply understand the underlying context, you can achieve not just one-off trades, but also trades that consistently ride the wave
As a result, this leads to a more stable win rate
Reasons why you might not be profitable in overseas forex swing trading and how to fix them
Swing trading is a trading strategy that involves holding positions for several days to several weeks while anticipating the trends in the foreign exchange market
テクニカルとファンダメンタルズの両方の分析が求められる反面、「思うように勝てない」「難しく感じる」という声も多くあります。
This section explains the main reasons why people feel they can't win at swing trading and provides specific solutions to address them
Let's identify areas for improvement by comparing them to your own trading style
- Are we following the wrong trend?
- Are the stop-loss levels and timing appropriate?
- Are you making full use of technical analysis?
Are we following the wrong trend?
The most important thing in swing trading is "riding the trend."
にもかかわらず、上昇トレンド中に売りポジションを持ったり、下落トレンド中に買いポジションを持ってしまうケースが後を絶ちません。
為替市場には「トレンド相場」と「レンジ相場」がありますが、スイングトレードではトレンド相場を狙うのが基本です。
In particular, being able to capture the early stages of a trend reversal significantly increases the likelihood of making substantial profits
Conversely, swing trading is unsuitable in range-bound markets because the trend is not clearly defined
トレンドの方向を判断するためには、移動平均線や一目均衡表、MACDなどのテクニカル指標を活用し、相場の流れを見極める習慣を持ちましょう。
Are the stop-loss levels and timing appropriate?
スイングトレードで損失を最小限に抑えるためには、あらかじめ「損切りライン」を明確に設定しておくことが欠かせません。
しかし多くの人が、損切りを感情に任せてしまったり、そもそも設定しないまま取引を続けてしまい大きな損失を出しています。
Set your stop-loss level based on market volatility and chart patterns, and within a realistic price range (2-3% of your margin)
Stop-loss orders that are too short are easily shaken out by noise, while those that are too long reduce capital efficiency
Furthermore, by utilizing "stop-loss orders" that automatically cut losses, you can manage losses systematically without being swayed by emotions
なお、利確と損切りを同時に設定できる「OCO注文」も併用すれば、よりバランスの取れたリスク管理ができます。
Are you making full use of technical analysis?
スイングトレードでは、テクニカル分析によるエントリーポイントの見極めが非常に重要です。
しかし「なんとなく雰囲気でエントリーしてしまう」「インフルエンサーの発信を参考にしているだけ」といった状況では、勝率はなかなか上がりません。
First, narrow down the technical indicators you use to just one or two, and make sure you can use them thoroughly
代表的な分析ツールには、前のセクションでも紹介した移動平均線、一目均衡表、MACD、他にはRSI、ボリンジャーバンドなどがあります。
さらに、取引を「計画→分析→実行→振り返り」というサイクルで行うことも大切です。
By reviewing and correcting discrepancies between your analysis and the results, you can achieve continuous growth and stable profits
Q&A about Swing Trading
Many people are interested in swing trading, but have questions such as, "What timeframe should I look at?", "Can I really make money?", and "Can beginners do it?"
Here, we will explain the basic points of swing trading in an easy-to-understand way by answering frequently asked questions
Let's start by reviewing each point one by one to deepen our understanding
What timeframe should I use for swing trading?
この記事では、日足でトレンドを把握し、1時間足でエントリーする方法を前提に解説しています。
This combination of timeframes is easy for even beginners in swing trading to implement and is used by many traders
A key feature of this method is that you can easily improve your entry accuracy by checking the overall trend and direction on the daily chart and identifying opportunities for buying on dips or selling on rallies on the hourly chart
一般的には「日足＋4時間足」が王道とされることもありますが、1時間足を使えばより細かな変化に対応しやすく、国内トレーダーにも人気のある組み合わせです。
To find the timeframe that suits you best, it's important to actually use it and test it out
How should I determine the right time to close a swing trade?
In swing trading, where you take profits and cut losses significantly impacts your results
最初に利確目標と損切りラインを決めてからエントリーするのが基本です。
この記事の一目均衡表と移動平均線を使ったトレード手法でも、紹介していますのでそちらもご確認ください。
たとえば「ローソク足が雲の中に入ったら利確」「ローソク足が移動平均線を明確に下抜けたら損切り」といったように、テクニカル指標を活用した明確な判断基準を持つことが大切です。
Even when entering a trade on the 1-hour chart, important signals for closing a position include when the price breaks below the baseline on the daily chart or when the lagging span becomes intertwined with the candlestick, indicating a breakdown in the trend
感情で決済するのではなく、事前に決めた出口ルールに従うことが、スイングトレードで安定した成果を出すための鍵です。
Are there any currency pairs you would recommend for swing trading?
スイングトレードにおいては、値動きが素直で流動性が高い通貨ペアを選ぶのがポイントです。
この記事では、ドル円・ユーロドル・ポンドドルを中心に紹介しています。
These stocks have high trading volume and are well-suited for swing trading because technical analysis is effective
とくにドル円は日本人トレーダーにとって情報が豊富で、値動きも比較的安定しており、初心者でも扱いやすい代表的な通貨ペアといえます。
Conversely, emerging market currencies such as the Turkish lira and South African rand have wide spreads and are prone to wild fluctuations due to sudden news, making them less suitable for swing trading
通貨ペアの特徴を理解したうえで、自分の分析スタイルに合ったものを選ぶことが重要です。
Can beginners do swing trading?
スイングトレードは、初心者でも取り組める手法です。
However, it's essential to first grasp the fundamentals and not try to aim for huge profits right away
デイトレードのように1日中チャートを見続ける必要がないため、仕事や学業で忙しい人にも向いているのが特徴です。
This allows you to take some time to consider entry and exit decisions, reducing the psychological burden
ただし、含み損に耐える時間が長くなるため、資金管理と損切りルールを徹底することが大切です。
Be careful, as delaying cutting your losses carries the risk of a sudden and significant decrease in your capital
この記事で紹介しているように、日足と1時間足を活用した手法など、初心者にも分かりやすく再現性の高い方法を取り入れることで、より安全にスイングトレードを始めることができます。
Which is more profitable, swing trading or day trading?
Which method is more profitable largely depends on the trader's personality and lifestyle
Swing trading is characterized by its large profit margin per trade, allowing traders to aim for significant profits with a small number of trades
This is suitable for busy people or those who cannot constantly monitor the market, and it also reduces the mental burden relatively
On the other hand, day trading involves buying and selling many times in a short period of time, so quick judgment and experience are necessary
The appeal lies in being able to accumulate profits in a single day while constantly monitoring charts, but this also comes with significant stress and effort
どちらが優れているかではなく、自分に合ったスタイルを選ぶことが長期的な成功につながるというのがポイントです。
迷っている場合は、まずスイングトレードから始め、慣れてきたらデイトレードにも挑戦してみるのがおすすめです。
Summary | Is Swing Trading in Overseas Forex the Best Method? A Complete Explanation of How to Do It and All the Tips
海外FXのスイングトレードは、時間に余裕がない人でも利益を狙える効率的な取引手法です。
Since it doesn't require constantly monitoring the market, it's also suitable for those who want to balance it with their work
This article provides a thorough explanation of everything from the basics of swing trading to tips for increasing your win rate and specific trading methods
In particular, technical analysis methods such as "trend following" and "Ichimoku Kinko Hyo" are easy for beginners to replicate and offer the potential for long-term profits
また、精神的に安定して続けられる点もスイングトレードの魅力です。
To deal with unrealized losses and indecision about entry points, be sure to manage your margin maintenance ratio and stop-loss settings
If you're tired of short-term trading or can't check charts every day, please use the information in this article as a reference and try swing trading
Consistency and strict adherence to rules are the shortest path to stable profits
